NFL 10th overall pick or state lottery winner?
In an earlier post I addressed the ridiculously exhorbitant contracts that are being bestowed upon NFL rookies looking at the past ten years but more importantly noticing the past three years as the percentages have gone above and beyond normal levels of salary inflation. As I alluded to in the title line, these players were becoming the NFL version of Powerball winners. Now I am taking a look at 10th overall picks and while they may not see the levels of money as their 1st overall brethren, the numbers they see would be gladly welcomed by anyone who picks up a QuickPick ticket at their local 7-11. Now some people (and they are out there) defend the draft by saying that after the first few picks, the draft seems to even out and keep the contract amounts in check. While on paper this may appear true when evaluating a particular year, I decided that deeper analysis should be done. Not surprisingly, it was a lot harder to track down the specific numbers for these picks going back ten years (although I’m sure if I spent enough hours on it I could find these numbers but I’ve got a life to lead also). Here’s the contract numbers that I was able to discover.
Travis Taylor, Baltimore Ravens, $7.46 million/ $5 million signing bonus (Again the former version of guaranteed money)
Jamal Reynolds, Green Bay Packers, N/A (Although it is safe to say that Reynolds only made whatever that contract was for, if that, since he ended up being one of the biggest busts in that draft plus one of the few black marks on Ron Wolf’s drafting resume)
Levi Jones, Cincinnati Bengals, N/A (Jones did recieve a follow-up contract that paid him quite well although he was unable to last in the league due to injuries)
Terrel Suggs, Baltimore Ravens, N/A (Definitely lived up to his contract and signed what was then the largest contract for a linebacker ever, a title he probably held for about ten minutes)
Dunta Robinson, Houston Texans, $10.7M/ $8M Guar. (Another player who lived up to potential and subsequently earned a very generous second contract)
Mike Williams, Detroit Lions, $13.5M/ $10.5M Guar. (Matt Millen’s third consecutive 1st round WR, second consecutive Williams, and someone who ate himself out of the league)
Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals, $51M/ $14M Guar. (Taken one year after he was considered the consensus #1 overall pick, Leinart gets an incentive loaded deal that looks out of place amongst these other players although the guaranteed money fits pretty well)
Amobi Okoye, Houston Texans, $17.6M/ $12.785M Guar. (Perfect example of how maybe 19 year olds shouldn’t be allowed to play despite their eligibility)
Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots, $18.9M/ $13.8M Guar. (A good player who lucked out by landing on a great team that just happened to be picking high via a trade)
Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers, $32M/ $17M Guar. (The well-known holdout netted Crabtree a really good deal after using the now infamous ‘Where I should have been drafted based on mock drafts’ argument)
Tyson Alualu, Jacksonville Jaguars, $28M/ $17.5M Guar. (TBD whether he merits this amount of money)
Okay, it’s probably a safe bet that Reynolds, Jones, and Suggs received comparable money depending on the year of their draft. While Reynolds didn’t work out, Jones and Suggs performed well and were compenstated accordingly in their second contracts. And isn’t that really how this should work? Same with Williams and Okoye. At least those teams weren’t hamstrung for years when those contracts were terminated. Something of more concern though is the very similar percentage increases within the last 3-4 years. The increase from Okoye to Crabtree is 81%, which includes a 32% increase in the guaranteed money. So while the guaranteed money stays a little closer to a natural progression, the overall contract numbers are going up just as quickly as they are for the 1st overall picks. So later in the draft defenders, how do you explain that? Bottom line is that as I stated in my previous post, the NFL needs a rookie pay scale to have any chance of prolonging their status of huge cash cow and number one sport in America.
And besides, as today’s Andre Johnson deal shows, any contract is only made to be broken.
